As the Bitcoin mining reward halving, scheduled for April 20, approaches, the network has seen a noticeable spike in its hash rate, registering a 15% increase in 2024. The 14-day rolling average hash rate is approaching record levels and is currently peaking at approximately 598 EH/s.

This increase in hash rate suggests that miners are ramping up their activity to optimize profits ahead of the halving, a sentiment echoed by Mike Alfred, board member of IREN Energy. Alfred predicts a noticeable correction in the global hash rate following the halving, attributing this to the widespread use of old mining hardware struggling to remain profitable.

Confirming this observation, CryptoSlate has previously highlighted the trend of hash rates increasing as the halving approaches, noting that such increases are typical in the 4-6 months leading up to the halving.

Historical analysis shows a consistent pattern of miner capitulation after the halving, with a significant drop in hash rate: 39% in December 2012, 11% in August 2016 and 26% in May 2020.

Hash Ribbon analysis, an important market indicator for predicting Bitcoin price lows associated with miner capitulation, further illuminates the expected trend. This indicator identifies the transition from negative to positive price momentum when the 30-day moving average (MA) of the hash rate crosses the 60-day MA. Such a crossing signals the end of the most intense phase of the miners’ capitulation.

Analyzing three different examples, it was observed that miner capitulation usually begins when the 30-day moving average falls below the 60-day moving average, and this pattern is often observed after a halving. About a month after this crossover, the 30-day MA tends to rise above the 60-day MA. This transition is usually accompanied by an increase in the value of Bitcoin.