Bitcoin is poised to break $70,000. What is driving this latest surge?

A number of factors actually came together today:

The expiration of over $3.9 billion worth of Bitcoin futures options is a big deal. These options expired early this morning on Deribit, and BTC’s “maximum pain point” was $63,000.

The maximum pain point is the price at which most options contracts are worthless upon expiration. This does not mean that Bitcoin will reach $63,000, but it does create downward pressure.

The periods surrounding option expirations are often volatile. Traders brace for price swings in an attempt to avoid big losses. While the maximum pain point is important, it is not a guaranteed target, and is just one factor in a sea of market influences.

Next up, Donald Trump is set to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference tomorrow in Nashville. There’s a lot of chatter online about what he might say.

He’s expected to announce a Bitcoin reserve policy if he wins the next election. The idea of the US becoming a major buyer of the cryptocurrency is enough to excite any market.

Along with Trump’s speech, traders are eagerly awaiting the release of new US inflation data. The June Core PCE price index was recently released, showing a 0.2% increase month-on-month. It was expected to be 0.1%, up from 0.10% previously.

On an annualized basis, the Core PCE price index came in at 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% expected. Traders now believe the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in July, but could begin cutting rates in September.

Another positive factor for the BTC price growth was the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin ETF, which amounted to $31.1 million yesterday. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $67,380, up 0.03%.